Access Tiers
CERES API access is free for academic institutions and humanitarian organisations. All tiers share the same endpoints and data quality — the difference is rate limits and support.
- ✓All prediction endpoints
- ✓All hypothesis data
- ✓Admin1 signal breakdown
- ✓100 requests / day
- ✓Academic & NGO use
- ✓All Open Research features
- ✓5,000 requests / day
- ✓Webhook alerts on Tier-I events
- ✓White-label PDF reports
- ✓Dedicated support
- ✓All Institutional features
- ✓Unlimited requests
- ✓Custom region coverage
- ✓Private deployment option
- ✓SLA & integration support
To request API access, email hello@northflow.no with your organisation name and intended use. Academic and humanitarian requests are approved within 48 hours.
Connection
# Production
Base URL: https://ceres.northflow.no/api
# All endpoints require the version prefix
GET https://ceres.northflow.no/api/v1/predictions
# Authentication (Tier B/C)
Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY
# Open Research: no authentication required
GET https://ceres.northflow.no/api/v1/predictionsPredictions
# Returns all monitored regions with current forecast
GET /v1/predictions?tier=1&format=json
# Response
{
"run_id": "CERES-20260228-160603",
"generated_at": "2026-02-28T16:06:03Z",
"horizon_days": 90,
"predictions": [
{
"region_id": "SDN",
"region_name": "Sudan",
"p_ipc3_plus": 0.966,
"ci_lower": 0.923,
"ci_upper": 0.984,
"tier": 1,
"composite_stress": 0.51,
"primary_driver": "conflict"
}
]
}GET /v1/predictions/SDN
# Returns full prediction with hypothesis IDs
{
"region_id": "SDN",
"p_ipc3_plus": 0.966,
"p_ipc4_plus": 0.676,
"ci_lower": 0.923,
"ci_upper": 0.984,
"hypothesis_ids": ["H-SDN-001", "H-SDN-002", "H-SDN-003"]
}Query Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| tier | optional | Filter by tier: 1, 2, or 3 |
| format | optional | json (default) or csv |
| run_id | optional | Retrieve a specific historical run |
Hypotheses
GET /v1/hypotheses/H-SDN-001
{
"id": "H-SDN-001",
"region_id": "SDN",
"rank": 1,
"archetype": "conflict-driven",
"confidence": 0.88,
"text": "Armed conflict has severely disrupted agricultural labour...",
"evidence": [
{
"source": "ACLED",
"variable": "conflict_events_4wk",
"observed": 312,
"threshold": 50,
"direction": "above",
"verdict": "SUPPORTS"
}
]
}Admin1 Resolution
GET /v1/admin1/ETH
# Returns Admin1 units for Ethiopia
{
"country": "ETH",
"units": [
{
"admin1_id": "ETH-OR",
"name": "Oromia",
"composite_stress": 0.61,
"ipc_phase_current": 3,
"signals": { "chirps": -1.8, "ndvi": -0.14 ... }
}
]
}Response Format
All endpoints return JSON. Dates are ISO 8601. Probabilities are floats in [0, 1]. Confidence intervals are 90% bootstrap CIs.
# Standard envelope
{
"run_id": "CERES-20260228-160603",
"generated_at": "2026-02-28T16:06:03Z",
"horizon_days": 90,
"reference_date": "2026-02-28",
"data": { ... }
}# Error envelope
{
"error": "region_not_found",
"message": "Region XYZ is not currently monitored",
"status": 404
}All probabilities follow the same field pattern: p_ipc3plus_90d, ci_90_low, ci_90_high.
Attribution Requirements
All use of CERES data — whether in publications, dashboards, or operational systems — requires attribution to Northflow Technologies and CERES.
# Required attribution string
"Source: CERES (Calibrated Early-warning & Risk Evaluation System),
Northflow Technologies, 2026. ceres.northflow.no"
# For academic publications, also cite the methodology pre-print
"Northflow Technologies (2026). CERES: Calibrated Early-warning &
Risk Evaluation System. arXiv:2026.XXXXX"CERES predictions are provided under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence (CC BY 4.0). Commercial use requires a Tier B or C agreement.