CERES
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Read the paperResearch collaboration: ceres@northflow.no
Sub-national Resolution · Admin1 · Province / State

Sub-national Risk Intelligence

Probabilistic 90-day IPC Phase 3+ forecasts disaggregated to Admin1 (province / state / region) level across … Admin1 regions in … countries.

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Admin1 Regions
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Countries
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TIER-1 · Critical
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TIER-2 · Warning
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CountryRegionTierP(IPC3+) 90d ▼CompositeConflictDroughtFood AccessIPC Phase

Probability forecasts computed using the same logistic scoring model as country-level predictions, disaggregated via grid-cell intersection (~50-200 km accuracy). Rows marked "est." use country-level signals scaled by population weight where sub-national grid data is sparse. Updated weekly.